Global Car Registrations Fall 4.9% as EU Imports Surge
Global demand for new cars weakened in the first half of 2026, but the downturn was far from uniform. A market report published by the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association on October 12 puts worldwide registrations at 35.7 million vehicles, down 4.9% from the first half of 2025.
The headline decline largely reflects ACEA’s estimate of a 23.2% drop in China’s domestic market, along with softer results in the Middle East and Africa. Europe moved in the other direction: EU registrations increased 5.7%, while South America grew 16.9% and Brazil rose 22.8%.
ACEA represents major European vehicle manufacturers, so its report is an industry-group analysis rather than a government statistical release. The figures nevertheless provide a useful regional comparison of registrations, production and trade during the same six-month period.
Production fell less than registrations
Global car production declined 1% to 37.6 million units. China’s output fell 5.8%, its first decrease since 2020, according to ACEA. North American production slipped 1.4%, while South America was the only major region with strong growth, increasing 7.6% as Brazilian output rose 12%.
EU vehicle production decreased 0.4%. That relatively small change masked a bigger shift in where cars sold in Europe were built. ACEA says EU-based production fell to a record-low 68% of EU sales, while vehicles made in China reached a 9% share.
That trend helps explain why European manufacturers are putting more attention on regional production, pricing and trade policy. It also adds context to the recent EU-China hybrid-import understanding and to Volkswagen Group’s latest delivery results.
EU imports rose as exports declined
The trade figures show pressure on both sides of the ledger. EU car imports increased 16.1% by volume and 15.6% by value during the first half. Imports from China exceeded 700,000 units, and their value climbed 70.5% to €10.5 billion.
EU exports fell 5.9% by volume and 12% by value. ACEA says weaker shipments to the United States and Türkiye contributed to the decline, although the United States and United Kingdom still accounted for 48% of the total value of EU car exports. The sector’s trade surplus narrowed 34.2% to €28.7 billion.
Those numbers do not by themselves identify which brands gained or lost share, and they should not be read as a forecast for the second half. They do show that stronger registrations inside the EU did not translate into comparable growth for European factories or exporters.
Commercial vehicles moved higher
Commercial vehicles were a brighter part of the European report. First-half registrations rose 1.9% for vans, 9.8% for trucks and 22.7% for buses. ACEA cautions that the van and truck increases partly reflect recovery from a low comparison base, while bus demand continued to benefit from public procurement.
Production growth was more restrained. EU van output increased 0.2% in the first half, while ACEA projects full-year gains of 1.5% for trucks and 2.7% for buses. Trade balances also diverged: the van surplus increased 12% to €823 million, the truck surplus fell 9.1%, and the bus deficit widened to €1.7 billion.
What the report means
The first half of 2026 produced a mixed picture: fewer registrations and less production globally, stronger EU demand, faster import growth and weakening exports. South America stood out as the clearest growth region, while Europe’s commercial-vehicle market outperformed passenger cars in several segments.
For European automakers, the main challenge is not simply selling more vehicles at home. The report suggests they must also defend local production, manage rising import competition and rebuild export momentum in major overseas markets.
Source and image credit
Primary source: ACEA Economic and Market Report: Global and EU auto industry — first half of 2026, published October 12, 2026. Featured image: rows of new cars in a parking area, used as an illustrative market image. Photo by Rob Dean on Unsplash.